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2021

《2021年世界幸福报告》分享

漫谈——分享一些自己在看
《2021年世界幸福报告》时的想法

作者注:此文只是基于该报告的一些想法,并不完全展示了该报告的所有内容,若有兴趣的,可以下载官方报告进行阅读。

该报告的简要概括

《2021年世界幸福报告》与以往的报告最大的不同是更关注2020年SARS-CoV-2病毒的影响。主要内容分两点,一个是评估病毒对人们生活质量的影响;另一个是分析和评价各个国家的政府如何应对疫病。

个人的阅读分享

1.国民的总体幸福指数并不会有太大的波动,这是从最近的几次排名和分数上可以看出来的,理由也很简单:大部分的人有比较好的自我调整能力,而且,疫病虽然是有一定的影响,但它并不是生活的全部,最显而易见的是:人们对于寿命的预期比上一年(2019年)少了0.3年,相应的情绪等也会有一定的变化。

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2.影响生活满意度的因素中,有趣的是:失业的负面影响是工资翻倍的正面影响的两倍有多,我的解释是:一来工作并不只是带给人薪水上的回报,还有心理上的自我实现、与同事的社交和合作等;再者,人对于数字的感觉并不正比于数额,说到底人并不是绝对理性的动物,人普遍更厌恶损失。

另外,这里需要先指出的是,信任度的高低对生活满意度的影响非常大,后面会再谈到。

COVID-19 Data Repository by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University

3.这是两张比较令人悲伤的图,前者反映了由于疫病带来的额外的死亡,后者反映了SARS-CoV-2病毒在各国夺去生命的比例。乍一看会十分不解,在经济比较发达、医疗资源相对比较充足的北美和欧洲都是重灾区;其实不难理解,病毒的易传染性、易变异使得其很容易传播起来,而感染之后,年老者的死亡率是会高很多。之前还寄希望于疫苗能够迅速控制,但现在甚至连疫苗的效果都要打一个很大的问号,如果短期内没法研制出对多种变种都比较有效的疫苗,大概我们真的得和这个病毒共存好一段时间。

疫病席卷全世界,给很多人、很多家庭带来了噩梦,无论你们身边是否有受影响的人(应该大多数都会有),都希望大家能够多一点同理心,这并不是一场数字游戏,每一个1都代表着一个被带离这个世界的人,一个被伤害的家庭。

The best strategy was to drive community transmission to zero, and to keep it there, thus saving lives and achieving more open societies and economies by late 2020.This is likely to make for happier societies in 2021 and beyond.

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4.目前最有用的措施仍然是通过一系列合理的措施(如跟踪病例、筛查、封锁、疫苗接种、戴口罩等)来将社区传播尽量减少到为零,大家会看到这的确会大幅减少传染率并且经济和交通都能够更快地再次开放,从而缓解国民的幸福感减少的幅度。

全球性的传染病,要控制好必然离不开全球的合作和交流。我不时会想,如果消息能更快地传达,世卫组织可以更早地公布全球紧急情况,相关的保护性实验能更早地开展,也许,就能救下很多很多人的性命,少一些生离死别的时刻。

We do not have a measure of general trust in others for our large sample of countries, so we make use
instead of a measure of the inequality of income distribution, which has often been found to be a robust predictor of the level of social trust
.

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5.这是一个比较有趣的点,即社会收入的不平等程度能够很好地反映社会的信任程度。

因为感兴趣,所以就搜集了一些资料。西方世界的研究较早(2005年时已有这样的结论和普遍的共识),而大陆在这方面的研究起步不晚,不过首次将这两者联系在一起系统分析的,似乎是2016年由申广军 、张川川撰写的《收入差距、社会分化与社会信任》(我所查到的结果,可能有疏忽)。在这篇论文中,作者们得出结论:

1) 大陆的信任程度在不断地恶化,无论是对亲戚、朋友、同事还是陌生人都如此(论文使用的数据仅截止到2010年前,不过,从最近的调查(2015年)公布的数据来看,信任度又有一些提高,不过也要注意到问卷的用词有些许的不同:“完全”与“绝大多数”);

《收入差距、社会分化与社会信任》
根据cgss2015的数据进行绘制(删除了无法回答的样本)

2) 高收入和低收入人群的信任程度都不高,这一点跟西方国家不同,他们的高收入人群信任程度较高;

3) “不平等的收入分配使得低收入群体更容易认为自己社会地位较低,高收入群体也更容易认为自己社会地位较高,而认为 自己属于中间阶层的人数大幅减少,从而加剧了社会地位分化程度。由于社会地位较高和社会地位较低的群体都倾向于报告更低的社会信任,因而社会分化程度较高的社区更不容易培养社会信任。” 即收入差距促进了社会地位的分化,这种分化导致的就是信任程度的降低(减少了中间阶层的人数,这些人是信任程度较高的群体)。

《收入差距、社会分化与社会信任》

Several of the 23 female heads of government have favoured making policy with overall well-being as the objective, making the suppression of community transmission an even more obvious choice for them. Countries that rank highly on a range of social features likely to support a virus suppression strategy are also more likely to have chosen a female leader. Having a female leader is associated with death rates lower by 19 per 100,000 population.

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6.这也是一个很有趣的现象,女性政府首脑会更倾向于为了社会整体的福祉去采取限制社区传播的策略,简单来说就是更加地关注人本身。

Trust was shown to be the key factor linking happiness and COVID-19. Of all the six factors supporting happiness, only trust played an equally strong role in helping countries to find and implement successful COVID-19 strategies. It was shown to be as important as ever in supporting happiness during the pandemic, and was found to be even more important when COVID-19 required the whole structure of private and public lives to be refocused on fighting the pandemic. Societies with higher trust in public institutions and greater income equality were shown to be more successful in fighting COVID-19, as measured by 2020 rates of COVID-19 deaths.

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7.社会信任不仅关系到幸福指数,还对抗疫效果有很大的影响。不过前者更多的是对人群的信任,后者更强调对政府、政客的信任。

In addition to rapid and systematic government responses, citizens in East Asia (except for Japan) were generally more compliant with government mandates for mask-wearing, improving personal hygiene, and maintaining physical distance than citizens in the selected Western countries. We argue that certain cultural traits (defined in Hofstede’s model of national culture), such as being less individualistic, more long-term oriented, and less indulgent may help to explain the more self-regulated behavior and greater compliance with government policies in East Asia. However, these cultural tendencies alone are not indispensable for controlling the pandemic. The successes of Australia and New Zealand suggest that even in countries with more individualistic, short-term oriented, and more indulgent citizens, a responsible government still can implement very effective policies to contain the spread of COVID-19.

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8.第三章是分析东亚国家和地区抗疫比较成功(对比西方国家)的原因。同时从澳大利亚和新西兰成功的例子说明,尽管文化上没有那么地强调集体和服从,负责任的政府实行有效的策略仍然可以控制得住。

Yet beyond this lay public attitudes. The public in the North Atlantic region was less supportive of NPIs, less compliant with public policies, and more resistant to stringent control measures. We surmise that this resistance reflects two considerations: an excessive individualism at play in the North Atlantic societies and a poor level of scientific awareness, which increases the public’s susceptibility to fake news and undermines their readiness to comply with necessary control measures.

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9.我们从这里可以看出科学素养的重要性,为什么谣言、假新闻会流行?除去媒体、内容农场的不专业、故意误导之外,也有群众的科学知识储备不足的原因。人们听了之后就相信,并不是他们认为那种说法有多么地真实,而是他们从没觉得可以质疑,但科学的问题,往往就是要讲证据的,不是想到什么就说什么。

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10.人的心理自我调整能力还是比较强的,对于封锁、宣传的恐慌和反应只是短期的,但长期的影响不容忽视,我们不能期望没有任何的伤害就度过这一段很艰难的时期,尤其是,这将是一段很长很久的过程。如果你发现身边的人可能需要心理上的支持,请耐心地聆听他们的声音。

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11.一些针对疫病的限制措施下,人与人交流的距离变远了,机会也变少了。不上网或者网络的社交比较少时,人会更容易感到孤独和难过。线下的见面确实更亲密和享受,然而在这样特殊的时间里,没有网络,可以预料到人们打电话的时间必然会增多。希望能够早点结束,世界重回随时随地可以自由见面的美好。

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Most studies generally find that those who are unemployed are 5 to 15 percent less satisfied with their lives than those who are employed. In the 2017 edition of this report, we found that unemployed workers are on average 0.6 points less satisfied than counterparts working full-time on a scale from 0-10. In high-income countries, this difference becomes even larger. In Western Europe and North America, full-time workers have been found to be 1.11 and 1.31 points more satisfied with their lives than those who are unemployed, respectively. Relative to other life circumstances, becoming unemployed is also less subject to well-being adaptation over time. Yet, importantly, the relationship between work and well-being extends beyond simply unemployment. Past research has documented strong negative impacts of underemployment, as well as labour market inactivity. In some analyses, the negative impact of working hour reductions and inactivity on life satisfaction is even larger than the negative impact of becoming unemployed.

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12.肉眼可见这次疫病对经济的打击程度有多大:失业率有明显的增加,最严重的时候招聘的职位少了一半。而失业对生活幸福指数的降低也是很显著的。

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工作到底对幸福感有怎样的影响?看上表大家应该也能够略知一二了,在美国,归属感、上班时间和地点的灵活性、较为宽容和尊重的工作环境是比较重要的指标,而疫病爆发后,有一个较好的领导者和灵活性变得更加的重要。

Sensing a workplace revolution, some companies have already decided to get rid of their offices entirely. However, this risks overlooking important potential negative impacts of homeworking full-time. This shift could undermine social and intellectual capital, which may harm companies and their employees in the long-term. In this context, social and intellectual capital can be visualised as stocks that are slowly being depleted when working mostly from home. These stocks are normally replenished by new in-flows of people, places, and ideas. For workers, social and intellectual capital is built by shared experiences with co-workers and unplanned social interactions that broaden one’s thinking. While past research has found some clear benefits in productivity for home workers, they also found that they are more likely to be overlooked for promotion—a clear indication of the need to build social capital with colleagues.

Moving forward, it will be important to maintain the benefits of working from home while still enabling employees and companies to build and sustain their social and intellectual capital. Throughout the pandemic, flexibility has become an even more important driver of workplace well-being than it already was. Even working at the office one or two days a week can provide people with the network, routine, and identity needed to support well-being. A flexible homeworking model that still affords employees opportunities to network, collaborate, and socialise in person could provide the necessary in-flows of social and intellectual capital and lead to large productivity dividends. These and other insights derived from applied well-being science can help societies build back better in the post-pandemic world.

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13.虽然疫病影响下,很多公司和企业都开始普遍实行远程上班,不用办公室和通勤,确实能够省下很多钱,而且有更多的空闲时间。

有些公司甚至开始实行无办公室的制度,长远来看,这不是一件好事。前面也提到,工作灵活性对于幸福感的提升,再者,在公司里面,带来的身份感和人际更直接有效的交流,对幸福感和灵感的产生都有莫大的帮助。

It is extremely interesting to look at the correlation of death rates and losses to GDP. Across 79 countries, the correlation is positive and quite substantial (r = 0.38). In other words, countries that controlled the virus also avoided the economic losses which affected other countries.

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14.全球大流行的传染病,仍将会持续好长的一段时间。如何有效地持续控制住其爆发,是摆在所有国家政府的一个挑战。要注意到,抗疫和发展经济基本并不矛盾,但也要视其程度而言,过于重视一方,很可能导致求而不得或付出其他的代价。

End
Thanks for reading~

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